The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh: A Fragile Peace?

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most enduring and complicated disputes in the post-Soviet region. It stands as a symbol of unresolved historical grievances, ethnic rivalries, and geopolitical maneuvering. For over three decades, the mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to Armenians, has been at the center of a bitter territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Despite numerous efforts at diplomacy and fleeting ceasefires, true peace remains elusive.

This article explores the complex historical roots of the conflict, the repeated outbreaks of violence, the role of regional and international powers, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region. As fragile ceasefires continue to collapse, the question remains: is a lasting peace possible in Nagorno-Karabakh?

Historical Background: The Seeds of Conflict

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has deep historical roots, dating back to the early 20th century. Following the collapse of the Russian Empire, Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh sought independence or union with Armenia, leading to tensions with the newly formed Azerbaijan Democratic Republic. The Soviet authorities eventually established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) within Azerbaijan in 1923, a decision that laid the groundwork for future conflict​.

Throughout the Soviet period, Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh faced discrimination and restrictions on their cultural and political rights. Azerbaijani authorities were accused of suppressing Armenian identity and altering the region’s demographics. By the late 1980s, as Soviet control weakened, Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh reignited their calls for unification with Armenia. What began as peaceful protests quickly escalated into ethnic violence and pogroms against Armenians in Azerbaijani cities such as Sumgait and Baku​.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994) was a brutal conflict that resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of over a million people. By the time a ceasefire was brokered in 1994, Armenian forces controlled Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding Azerbaijani territories. The region declared independence as the Republic of Artsakh, although no country, including Armenia, officially recognized it​​.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War: A New Chapter of Violence

The ceasefire of 1994 brought a temporary halt to large-scale hostilities but left the conflict unresolved. For years, border clashes and low-intensity skirmishes continued, as Azerbaijan vowed to regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh. In September 2020, Azerbaijan launched a full-scale military offensive, fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape of the region.

The 44-day war in 2020 was characterized by the extensive use of drones and modern military technology, much of which was supplied by Turkey and Israel. Azerbaijan’s superior firepower and strategic support from Turkey enabled it to make significant territorial gains, capturing areas that had been under Armenian control since the 1990s​​.

The war ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire on November 10, 2020. Under the terms of the agreement, Armenia ceded control of several territories around Nagorno-Karabakh, and Russian peacekeepers were deployed to oversee the ceasefire and ensure the safe passage of civilians along the Lachin Corridor, the main route connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia​​.

While Azerbaijan celebrated its victory, the human cost of the conflict was immense. Thousands were killed, and the infrastructure of Nagorno-Karabakh was devastated. For Armenia, the loss was a national tragedy, and the political fallout in Yerevan was swift and severe. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan faced widespread criticism and protests demanding his resignation​.

The 2023 Offensive and Humanitarian Crisis

In September 2023, Azerbaijan once again launched military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh, citing the need to neutralize “illegal Armenian armed groups” and secure its sovereignty over the region​. This offensive followed a months-long blockade of the Lachin Corridor, which left the region’s 120,000 residents cut off from essential supplies. Reports of food, water, and medical shortages fueled international concern, with many accusing Azerbaijan of using hunger as a weapon to force the Armenian population out​​.

The offensive lasted only a few days, but its impact was devastating. Facing overwhelming force and international isolation, the de facto authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh agreed to a ceasefire. Within weeks, nearly the entire Armenian population fled the region, seeking refuge in Armenia. By January 2024, the Republic of Artsakh was officially dissolved, marking the end of its three-decade existence​.

The humanitarian crisis in the aftermath of the offensive drew condemnation from international organizations and governments. Calls for a United Nations-led mission to assess human rights violations in Nagorno-Karabakh were met with resistance from Azerbaijan, which insisted that its actions were in line with its sovereign rights​.

The Role of Regional and Global Powers

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has always been influenced by external actors. Russia, traditionally the primary power broker in the South Caucasus, has played a contradictory role, supplying arms to both Armenia and Azerbaijan while positioning itself as a mediator. However, its focus on the war in Ukraine has diminished its capacity to maintain control in the region​​.

Turkey has emerged as a key supporter of Azerbaijan, driven by cultural and linguistic ties as well as strategic interests in the South Caucasus. Turkish military support, particularly in the form of drone technology, was a decisive factor in Azerbaijan’s victory in 2020​. Meanwhile, Iran and Israel have also sought to exert influence in the region, with Israel providing military technology to Azerbaijan and Iran maintaining close ties with Armenia​​.

The European Union and the United States have called for restraint and emphasized the importance of a peaceful resolution, but their influence in the region remains limited. Diplomatic efforts by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have largely stalled due to the intransigence of both parties and competing geopolitical interests​.

Obstacles to Peace and Prospects for the Future

Despite numerous attempts at negotiation, a lasting peace settlement remains elusive. The key stumbling blocks include the question of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status, security guarantees for its remaining Armenian population, and the demilitarization of the region​. Azerbaijan insists on its territorial integrity, while Armenians demand assurances for the protection of their cultural and historical heritage in the region​.

The lack of trust between the two sides, compounded by decades of propaganda and deeply ingrained historical grievances, makes reconciliation difficult. Humanitarian issues, including the return of displaced persons and the rebuilding of Nagorno-Karabakh, further complicate the prospects for peace​.

However, some analysts argue that the recent shifts in power dynamics may create an opportunity for a more durable solution. The collapse of the Republic of Artsakh and the growing international scrutiny of Azerbaijan’s actions could push both sides toward a more pragmatic approach​.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh stands at a crossroads. The recent ceasefire offers a fragile opportunity for peace, but without meaningful engagement, it risks becoming yet another brief pause in a long history of violence. The international community must step up its efforts to mediate and ensure that any settlement addresses not only territorial disputes but also the human rights and humanitarian needs of those affected by the conflict.

The future of Nagorno-Karabakh remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: peace will require compromise, courage, and sustained international support. Only through genuine dialogue and reconciliation can the region hope to break free from its cycle of conflict and build a lasting peace.

References

• Patricia Carley, Nagorno-Karabakh: Searching for a Solution, United States Institute of Peace, ( December 1, 1998 ), available at : https://www.usip.org/publications/1998/12/nagorno-karabakh-searching-solution-0
• Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Center for Preventive Action (March 20, 2024), available at: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict
• State Fragility and the Shadow of Genocide in Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia (the South Caucasus), Fragile States Index (June 07 2023) available at: https://fragilestatesindex.org/2023/06/07/state-fragility-and-the-shadow-of-genocide-in-nagorno-karabakh-and-armenia-the-south-caucasus/
• Mathieu Droin, Tina Dolbaia, Abigail Edwards, A Renewed Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Reading Between the Front Lines, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, ( September 22, 2023) available at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/renewed-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-reading-between-front-lines

The author affirms that this article is an entirely original work, never before submitted for publication at any journal, blog or other publication avenue. Any unintentional resemblance to previously published material is purely coincidental. This article is intended solely for academic and scholarly discussion. The author takes personal responsibility for any potential infringement of intellectual property rights belonging to any individuals, organizations, governments, or institutions.