Overview: South China Sea Dispute and threat to regional security

The South China Sea dispute is one of the biggest and most complicated geopolitical confrontations in the world. That clash claims lands and river ways. It is home to significant natural resources and is a vital global trade route that many nations have claimed over. In attempting to make the Sea a sphere of influence, China's increasingly belligerent stance and militarization of the region have added undue tensions and raised alarmist sentiments toward the stability and security of the region. This article tries to provide an outline for the historical background of the South China Sea conflict, the main claimants, the legal dimension, the security implications involved, and the possible options it could aspire to for resolving it.

The South China Sea had always been a troubled spot for various nations due to its strategic value and stretches more than 3.5 million square kilometers[1]. The ''nine-dash line[2]'' claims of China stem from the maps of the first quarter of the twentieth century. However, there are other claimants, such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, whose claims are framed within an international law's framework and historic proof. Towards the end of the 20th century, this contention escalated as freelancing commenced in the area, coinciding with build-up of forces in the area.

China claims that, under international law, foreign militaries cannot conduct intelligence-gathering activities, such as reconnaissance flights, in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). According to United States, claimant countries, under the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), should have freedom of navigation through EEZs.[3] While China challenged this claim and Permanent court of arbitration which is situated at Hague, ruled the judgement in favor of Philippines. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea which is an agreement signed by 167 countries, establishes a maritime boundary and Exclusive Economic Zone.

Major Claimants and Their Positions

There are various claims for the South China Sea by several nations some of which have very little control or influence over the water body on this earth:

China- Almost 90% of the South China Sea is claimed based on historical maps[4] and, as such, undertook island-building and militarization. It includes several groups of islands including the Paracel Islands, the Spratly Islands, and the Scarborough Shoal. Based on a line drawn on Chinese maps titled the "Nine-Dash Line," China claims nearly the entire South China Sea to be its territory.

Philippines- Claimed under the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), included in the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling in its favor against China.[5] The Philippines claims that the parts of the Spratly Islands (Kalayaan Island Group) and Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc) are under their jurisdiction as they fall within its EEZ. The Philippines is also strengthening their relations with India, Japan, the US, and Australia to counter China’s expansion.

Vietnam- Citing being its historical control over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, [6]Vietnam has clashed with China over fishing and oil exploration rights. Vietnam challenges that, the Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands have been under its sovereignty since 17th century. Military forces of Vietnam were deployed in the Paracel Islands prior to the year 1974 when China took its control. Portions of the Spratly Islands were also controlled by the South Vietnamese government before the year 1975 when the countries reunited.

Malaysia& Brunei- Stakes claim according to their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) under UNCLOS; Taiwan claims are similar to those of China but have not received international recognition. Taiwan also holds the similar claim, but it lacks the international recognition.

Security and Strategic Implications

The south China sea has raised many security issues and strategic complications. China has gone under large scale militarization by developing artificial island and deploying military bases, radar systems and missiles because of the escalating tensions. The United States and its allies have conducted a freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) to challenge China’s excess security in that region that has also led to risk of military confrontations. The south China sea is an economically important region as over $3 trillion worth of goods [7]passes through it annually and any instability in that region could affect the global market supply chain. The frequent naval encounters among nations increase the chances of conflict and raises concern about the army confrontations as it can lead to global crisis.

Diplomatic Efforts and Possible Resolutions

Several diplomatic efforts have been made to overcome and ease the situation. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has played a mediatory role, but internal divisions among member states limit its effectiveness. A legally binding Code of Conduct has been established between China and ASEAN, but the terms of the Code of Conduct are hindering the progress. The United States is actively involved in the conflict and is supporting the countries like Philippines and Vietnam to stop China’s expansion in the South. China prefers bilateral negotiations with the other countries that also acts as possible solutionto handle the situation.However, to achieve long terms successful resolutionwill be requiring a strong diplomatic effort alsomust stick to the international laws and cooperation among regional and global stakeholders can be the key.

India's Strategic Interests in the South China Sea

India though not a direct claimant to the dispute but has a strategic interest in the south China sea due to its emphasis in navigation, trade, security and regional stability. As India respects and supports the international law and has constantly supported UNCLOS. The South China Sea is of great importance for India as nearly 55% [8]of its trade passes through the water. Additionally, India is strengthening the defense and maritime cooperation with ASEAN nations such as Japan, and the U.S. to counter China's growing influence. Regardless of all these issues India prefers diplomatic solutions therefore it also engages in joint naval exercises to focus on maritime security.

Conclusion

The South China sea dispute is still a major threat to regional security and regardless of the legal mechanism the enforcement challenges and power dynamics makes it even bigger threat. Without a proper framework and mutual cooperation, the risk of military conflict and economic instability will continue to persist. Regional and global leaders must prioritize the peaceful negotiations and international relations, to ensure a stable functioning.

References

[1] South China Sea | Maritime Borders, Islands & Resources | Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/place/South-China-Sea (last visited Mar 20, 2025).

[2] MAP Spotlight: Nine-Dash Line, ICAS, https://chinaus-icas.org/research/map-spotlight-nine-dash-line/ (last visited Mar 20, 2025).

[3] Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea | Global Conflict Tracker, https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea (last visited Mar 14, 2025).

[4] Territorial disputes in the South China Sea | History, Maps, China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, & Facts | Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/topic/territorial-disputes-in-the-South-China-Sea (last visited Mar 20, 2025).

[5] Cases | PCA-CPA, https://pca-cpa.org/cases/ (last visited Mar 20, 2025).

[6] Vietnam | The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), https://www.nbr.org/publication/vietnam/ (last visited Mar 20, 2025).

[7] Jacque Schrag, How Much Trade Transits the South China Sea?, China Power Project (Aug. 2, 2017), https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/ (last visited Mar 20, 2025).

[8] QUESTION NO. †4832 INDIAN TRADE THROUGH SOUTH CHINA SEA, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, https://mea.gov.in/lok-sabha.htm?dtl/35118/question+no+4832+indian+trade+through+south+china+sea (last visited Mar 20, 2025).

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