Climate Refugees: A Missing Piece in Global Migration Policy
Mar. 06, 2025 • Shanmitha Bhogadi
Abstract
A United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHRC) assessment found that around 21.5 million people have been displaced due to climate change and related disasters. The number could potentially rise to 1.2 billion by 2050.[1] Though there is no ‘global migration policy’ as such, this article aims to assess refugee policies worldwide to find out the condition of those who have been displaced from their home countries due to natural occurrences. Despite the discussions and studies, and even a policy by the UNHCR (UNCR 2009b) on displacement resulting from natural disasters, there is considerably less literature on the state of climate refugees from an international relations viewpoint. This article aims to fill that gap.
Introduction
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) expert Essam El-Hinnawi first defined the term “climate refugees” in 1985.[2] According to the UN Refugee Agency, a refugee is someone who has been forced to flee conflict or persecution and has crossed an international border to seek safety. They cannot return to their native country without risking their life or freedoms.[3] There can be multiple reasons why people become refugees like violence, extreme poverty, or targeted abuse. Climate change is also one of them. A climate refugee is a person who is forced to leave their home due to climate-related events, such as increased drought, desertification, sea level rise, or disruption of seasonal weather patterns[4].
Migration and Climate Change Nexus
The nexus between migration and climate change is getting stronger by the day and a legal recourse is urgently needed. However, the main issue in forming a strict global refugee policy with a greater emphasis on climate refugees is the diverse impact of climate change. Though the urgency of taking action is well-established, there is a continuous debate on the sharing of responsibility. The inequality of who caused the most pollution and who faces the brunt of it is also concerning.
With sea levels rising, certain small island nations, especially in the Pacific, are at risk of disappearance and some even have been submerged into the ocean. In South Asia, the coastlines would change so dramatically that the traditional practices of sea-based occupations have to change their patterns which would, in turn, lead to major economic loss. In Northwest Africa, there would be an increased risk of political instability.[5] The World Bank, in 2018, estimated that around 143 million people will become climate migrants by 2050 from Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asian regions.[6]
Though the so-called Global South is gravely affected, it does not indicate that the Global North is unaffected. The Nordic nations are already suffering due to glacier melting, the forests in the USA have seen frequent fires and record-high temperatures have been recorded in summers across Europe. All this has led to economic loss and reversed the small environmental gains they made in the last couple of years.
What should a Policy for Climate Refugees entail?
This intersection of climate change and migration requires a new policy outlook. In the absence of any binding agreement to protect climate refugees on an international level, the first step to be taken is to grant them legal recourse. Next, we need policy changes at both, the national and international levels.
Similar to the refugee status granted to civilians in the aftermath of World War II, environment/climate refugees can also be conferred a similar status by the UNHRC. Sustainable Development Goals and Global Compact for Safe, Orderly & Regular Migration – both by the UN, could be used as a base for making the policies since they deal with both climate crisis and migration. Recognition is ideally the first step in catering to the special needs of climate refugees. It will clear the path to make special policies for them.
The next step should be categorization. Climate refugees are not a uniform population and cannot be treated as such. Any policy framed to cater to them must take into account their differences. Climate migrants can be divided based on different parameters. The UNFCC divides climate refugees into two types – sudden onset (like intense storms, forest fires, etc.,) and slow onset (like acidification of ocean, desertification, etc.,). While one-third are of the former type, two-thirds are in the latter category. Different policy approaches are needed for both. Then we have the distinction between voluntary movement and forced displacement. Lastly, there are permanent and temporary displacements. Moreover, these are not mutually exclusive divisions. For instance, sudden-onset migrants may be displaced only temporarily and the displacement may be internally, so global cooperation might not be important. While framing the policy, the makers are to keep such nuances in mind.
Another very important aspect is that climate change has changed geography as we know it. Therefore, there is a need for governments to undertake an exercise to designate areas based on their habitability after climate disasters and the risk of adverse climate effects – both sudden and slow. In his commentary on the Climate Change – Displacement Nexus, Walter Kälin asks governments to designate areas as high-risk zones too dangerous for human habitation to better deal with the crisis[7].
After the exercise, there have to be appropriate changes in town planning and an increase in investment for building climate-resilient infrastructure. Greater allocation of funds should also be done towards research in climate change and disaster management. When greater funding is given to research on climate change, it would create new career opportunities in the changing economic structure. Thus, the economic opportunities lost due to climate change will be replaced with newer ones.
Special attention to the island nations at risk of disappearance. The global community takes too little action for their protection compared to the media attention they are conferred with. It is the need of the hour to frame our policies and implement them promptly to prevent the disappearance, limit the damage to be caused inevitably, and have a backup plan to prevent its populace from statelessness in case of disappearance.
Conclusion
Climate change is a global problem and global cooperation is required to resolve it. Non-binding agreements are not sufficient to solve an issue of such a massive scale. We need effective policy intervention and regular upgradation to the policies. A global strategy is to be made at the world body and countries are to make suitable changes and implement them at the domestic level. If such an undertaking is not taken at the earliest, this climate crisis will snowball into a massive humanitarian crisis.
References:
[1] https://concernusa.org/news/climate-refugees-explained/
[4] https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/environmental-refugee/
[5] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-climate-crisis-migration-and-refugees/
[6] https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29
[7] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-climate-change-displacement-nexus/
The author affirms that this article is an entirely original work, never before submitted for publication at any journal, blog, or other publication avenue. Any unintentional resemblance to previously published material is purely coincidental. This article is intended solely for academic and scholarly discussion. The author takes personal responsibility for any potential infringement of intellectual property rights belonging to any individuals, organizations, governments, or institutions.